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October 8, 2020

1,844 new COVID-19 cases, 25 more deaths in Virginia

Thursday’s update includes 689 tases that should have been reported Wednesday, the Virginia Department of Health noted.
Curbside Testing
• Where: Piedmont Urgent Care, 493 Blackwell Road, Warrenton

• When: 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. daily

• Process: Patients can remain in their vehicles while healthcare professionals collect samples with swabs.

• Organizers: Rappahannock-Rapidan Health District and local partners, including medical practices, Fauquier Health, the free clinic, PATH Foundation and local government.

• Phone: 540-347-5200

• COVID questions: 540-316-6302 or .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address)
Thursday morning COVID-19 update from the Virginia Department of Health:

987 total cases in Fauquier County since the pandemic began — up 9 from Wednesday.

155,535 Virginia cases — up 1,844 since Wednesday. The total includes 146,957 confirmed and 8,578 “probable” infections.

The department noted: “The case count reported on Thursday, October 8, includes 689 cases that should have been reported on Wednesday, October 7, but were not because of a surveillance system reporting issue.”

3,328 deaths statewide — up 25 from Wednesday. Of the total fatalities, the health department classifies COVID-19 as the confirmed cause in 3,097 and “probable” in 231.

2,189,792 diagnostic tests statewide — up 19,4795 since Wednesday. Over the past seven days, 4.8 percent of those tests were positive.

Statewide hospitalizations for COVID-19 over the course of the pandemic totaled 11,393 as of Thursday, up 48 since Thursday.

But, the health department notes that its hospitalization figure — based on status at the time each case gets investigated — “underrepresents” the actual total.

Since the pandemic began, 18,278 “confirmed COVID-19 patients have been hospitalized and discharged,” according to the Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association.

State hospitals housed 1,003 infected patients Thursday, down 70 from Wednesday, according to the association.

That puts total Virginia hospitalizations during the pandemic at 19,211.

Virginia hospitalizations for COVID-19 peaked at 1,625 patients on May 8.

Healthcare providers and laboratories report statistics to the state as of 5 p.m. each day. The health department updates its report the following morning.

Fifty infected Fauquier patients have been hospitalized and 25 have died since the pandemic started.

In the Rappahannock-Rapidan Health District, which includes Fauquier:

• 1,234 cases (up 5), 94 hospitalizations and 18 deaths (up 1) in Culpeper.

• 349 infections (up 3), 22 hospitalizations and 5 deaths in Orange.

• 117 infections (up 2), 7 hospitalizations and 3 deaths in Madison.

• 67 cases (up 1), 5 hospitalizations and 2 deaths in Rappahannock.

The district has 53 COVID-19 deaths, and 178 infected patients have been hospitalized during the pandemic.

The health department reported 37,646 diagnostic tests in the district so far, up 247 from Wednesday. Over the last seven days, 4.5 percent of tests conducted in the five-county district were positive, up slightly.


Cases elsewhere in Virginia:

• 21,632 in Fairfax County — up 155 since Wednesday.

Prince William County, 12,979 — up 124.

Virginia Beach, 7,192 — up 51.

Loudoun County, 7,110 — up 68.

Chesterfield County, 6,266 — up 59.

Henrico County, 5,659 — up 42.

City of Norfolk, 4,996 — up 28.

City of Richmond, 4,839 — up 47.

City of Chesapeake, 4,517 — up 60.

Arlington County, 4,132 — up 49.

City of Alexandria, 3,961 — up 23.

City of Newport News, 2,867 — up 22.

City of Harrisonburg, 2,784 — up 27.

City of Portsmouth, 2,652 — up 18.

Spotsylvania County, 2,117 — up 20.

Montgomery County, 2,216 — up 28.

City of Suffolk, 2,164 — up 30.

Stafford County, 2,108 — up 26.

City of Roanoke, 2,022 — up 56.
City of Manassas, 1,970 — up 9.

City of Hampton, 1,923 — up 24.

City of Lynchburg, 1,613 — up 36.

Rockingham County, 1,576 — up 10.

Hanover County, 1,416 — up 15.

City of Charlottesville, 1,421 — up 31.

Albemarle County, 1,409 — up 19.

Accomack County, 1,188 — unchanged.

Henry County, 1,140 — up 20.

James City County (including Williamsburg), 1,080 — up 15.


Nationwide as of Wednesday:

7,560,010 cases — up 58,006.

• 212,103 deaths — up 1,185.

• 2,999,103 have recovered — up 47,505.

• 111.08 million tests conducted — up about 1.4 million.




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DougF · October 8, 2020 at 7:05 pm
(1) Public policy should be formed by multiple disciplines. Scientists alone does not dictate the way forward because they do not bring to the table the valuable insights from other disciplines.

(2) Additionally, science does not being knowledge of the exchange rate between scientific outcomes and outcomes in other disciplines, such as economics.

(3) In the links below we see that economics rather than science highlight additional deaths due to the poverty caused by the primary reaction to COVID-19: lockdown.

(4) Science never supported closing schools, yet schools were closed. Now the costs of closure are being made clear. The vulnerable, as usual, bear most of the costs in silence. The people in their nice middle and upper class houses don't see that, and don't care.

(5) While some scientists supported lockdowns, science did not. Lockdowns were never tried before. But when China locked down one city -- Wuhan, the world responded by locking down countries. The costs are exorbitant and will be noticeable for years to come. But once again, the main costs are on the infirm and the lower classes. People on salary, and people able to work from home, don't see those burdens and don't care.
DougF · October 8, 2020 at 6:53 pm
This study suggests that closing schools increases the number of deaths:

https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m3588
DougF · October 8, 2020 at 6:09 pm
DougF · October 8, 2020 at 6:07 pm
"Coronavirus: Health experts join global anti-lockdown movement"

"Thousands of scientists and health experts have joined a global movement warning of "grave concerns" about Covid-19 lockdown policies.

Nearly 6,000 experts, including dozens from the UK, say the approach is having a devastating impact on physical and mental health as well as society.

They are calling for protection to be focused on the vulnerable, while healthy people get on with their lives."

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54442386
DougF · October 8, 2020 at 6:02 pm
Covid-19 and its shutdown of societies and trade, will push between 88 and 115 million people into extreme poverty, says a new World Bank report.

https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/34496/9781464816024.pdf
DougF · October 8, 2020 at 5:42 pm
Lockdowns are not "following the science". Instead, they are a radical experiment that failed.

"What experimental drug would ever be approved if there were so much conflicting evidence of its efficacy and so much solid evidence of its harmful side effects?... Lockdowns must be the most costly—and cost-ineffective—medical intervention in history."

"In a comparison of 50 countries, a team led by Rabail Chaudhry of the University of Toronto found that Covid was deadlier in places with older populations and higher rates of obesity, but the mortality rate was no lower in countries that closed their borders or enforced full lockdowns. After analyzing 23 countries and 25 U.S. states with widely varying policies, Andrew Atkeson of UCLA and fellow economists found that the mortality trend was similar everywhere once the disease took hold: the number of daily deaths rose rapidly for 20 to 30 days, and then fell rapidly.
Similar conclusions were reached in analyses of Covid deaths in Europe. By studying the time lag between infection and death, Simon Wood of the University of Edinburgh concluded that infections in Britain were already declining before the nation’s lockdown began in late March. In an analysis of Germany’s 412 counties, Thomas Wieland of the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology found that infections were waning in most of the country before the national lockdown began and that the additional curfews imposed in Bavaria and other states had no effect."

https://www.city-journal.org/lockdowns-must-end
Linda Ward · October 8, 2020 at 4:03 pm
“The magnitude of this failure is astonishing,” the editorial said. “We have failed at almost every step.”

Differing opinions on neutrality in the scientific community have led some journals to regularly weigh in on political issues and others to abstain almost entirely. NEJM’s editors previously remained mum on elections and most other political issues, in part to preserve the perception of neutrality and credibility behind the peer-reviewed science the journal publishes.

Wednesday’s editorial shifted that stance, deriding the administration for undermining experts and relying heavily on layman allies to promote policies that furthered Trump’s political aims.

“Our current leaders have undercut trust in science and in government, causing damage that will certainly outlast them,” they wrote. “Instead of relying on expertise, the administration has turned to uninformed 'opinion leaders’ and charlatans who obscure the truth and facilitate the promulgation of outright lies.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/10/08/science-journal-endorsement-trump
Linda Ward · October 8, 2020 at 4:02 pm
"The New England Journal of Medicine avoided politics for 208 years. Now it’s urging voters to oust Trump."

“Here in the United States, our leaders have failed that test,” the editorial said. “They have taken a crisis and turned it into a tragedy.”

The United States “leads the world in Covid-19 cases and in deaths due to the disease,” the editorial says. Its infection and death rates have outstripped those in China, where the pandemic began; in Japan, which has a large and vulnerable elderly population; and in Vietnam, which has fewer national resources. And testing has also lagged behind much of the world, the editorial said, when measured by tests performed per infected person."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/10/08/science-journal-endorsement-trump
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