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September 7, 2020

3 more COVID-19 deaths bring county total to 18

Curbside Testing
• Where: Piedmont Urgent Care, 493 Blackwell Road, Warrenton

• When: 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. daily

• Process: Patients can remain in their vehicles while healthcare professionals collect samples with swabs.

• Organizers: Rappahannock-Rapidan Health District and local partners, including medical practices, Fauquier Health, the free clinic, PATH Foundation and local government.

• Phone: 540-347-5200

• COVID questions: 540-316-6302 or .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address)
The Virginia Department of Health on Monday reported 3 more COVID-19 deaths in Fauquier, bringing the county’s total to 18 since the pandemic started.

Those new fatalities resulted from the outbreak at the Brookside Rehab and Nursing Center in Warrenton, according to health department officials. The department on Saturday reported 6 deaths resulting from that outbreak.

The nursing home, which has reported 64 infections among patients and staff members, had 17 active infections Monday morning, according to its website.
The health department Monday morning also reported:

809 total cases in Fauquier County since the pandemic began — up 8 from Sunday.

127,571 Virginia cases — up 645 since Sunday. The total includes 121,919 confirmed and 5,652 “probable” infections.

2,684 deaths statewide — up 6 from Sunday. Of the total fatalities, the health department classifies COVID-19 as the confirmed cause in 2,551 and “probable” in 133.

1,676,446 diagnostic tests statewide — up 11,971 since Sunday. Over the past seven days, 7.7 percent of those tests were positive.

Statewide hospitalizations for COVID-19 over the course of the pandemic totaled 9,902 as of Monday, up 21 since Sunday.

But, the health department notes that its hospitalization figure — based on status at the time each case gets investigated — “underrepresents” the actual total.

Since the pandemic began, 15,742 “confirmed COVID-19 patients have been hospitalized and discharged,” according to the Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association.

State hospitals housed 1,061 infected patients Monday — down 22 from Sunday, according to the association.

That puts total Virginia hospitalizations during the pandemic at 16,803.

Virginia hospitalizations for COVID-19 peaked at 1,625 patients on May 8.

Healthcare providers and laboratories report statistics to the state as of 5 p.m. each day. The health department updates its report the following morning.

Forty-three infected Fauquier patients have been hospitalized and 18 have died since the pandemic started.

In the Rappahannock-Rapidan Health District, which includes Fauquier:

• 1,136 cases (up 2), 87 hospitalizations and 14 deaths in Culpeper.

• 273 infections (up 1), 19 hospitalizations and 4 deaths in Orange.

• 95 infections (unchanged), 6 hospitalizations and 2 deaths in Madison.

• 57 cases (up 1), 5 hospitalizations and 2 deaths in Rappahannock.

The district has 40 COVID-19 deaths, and 160 infected patients have been hospitalized during the pandemic.

The health department reported 30,001 diagnostic tests in the district so far, up 224 from Sunday. Over the last seven days, 5.9 percent of tests conducted in the five-county district were positive.


Cases elsewhere in Virginia:

• 19,055 in Fairfax County — up 72 since Sunday.

Prince William County, 11,253 — down 18.

Virginia Beach, 6,226 — up 3.

Loudoun County, 6,223 — up 25.

Chesterfield County, 5,264 — unchanged.

Henrico County, 4,806 — up 11.

City of Norfolk, 4,533 — up 39.

City of Richmond, 4,164 — up 29.

City of Chesapeake, 3,946 — up 14.

Arlington County, 3,640 — up 8.

City of Alexandria, 3,511 — up 11.

City of Newport News, 3,486 — up 9.

City of Portsmouth, 2,286 — up 3.

Spotsylvania County, 1,892 — up 7.

City of Manassas, 1,837 — up 4.

Stafford County, 1,779 — up 10.

City of Harrisonburg, 1,793 — up 48.

City of Suffolk, 1,733 — up 5.

City of Hampton, 1,629 — up 1.

City of Roanoke, 1,305 — up 38.

Accomack County, 1,153 — unchanged.

Rockingham County, 1,145 — up 12.

Albemarle County, 1,093 — up 7.

City of Lynchburg, 1,092 — up 11.


Nationwide as of Monday:

6,277,947 cases — up 31,679.

• 188,942 deaths — up 388.

• 2,315,995 have recovered — up 13,808.

• 82.83 million tests conducted — up about 740,000.



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Linda Ward · September 9, 2020 at 9:04 am
DougF - What did you say about Sturgis and very few Covid-19 cases again? How are you feeling since you said you were there?

"The Sturgis Motorcycle Rally led to significant spread of the novel coronavirus in the event’s home state of South Dakota and in other parts of the United States, a team of researchers said in a newly released study that is disputed by state officials.

The report from San Diego State University’s Center for Health Economics & Policy Studies used anonymized cellphone location data and virus case counts to analyze the impact of the 460,000-person event that took place last month, believed to be one of the largest events held during the pandemic. Health officials had expressed concerns about the rally, which, the researchers noted, “represents a situation where many of the ‘worst case scenarios’ for superspreading occurred simultaneously.” Those included the event being prolonged over 10 days, attracting a significant out-of-town population and involving attendees clustered together, with few wearing masks.

The consequences were “substantial,” the researchers concluded. By analyzing the parts of the country that had the highest number of Sturgis attendees and changes in coronavirus trends after its conclusion, they estimated 266,796 cases could be linked to the rally. That’s about 19 percent of the number reported nationally between Aug. 2 and Sept. 2, and significantly higher than the number state health officials have linked through contact tracing. Based on a covid-19 case statistically costing about $46,000, the researchers said, that would mean the rally carried a public health price tag of $12.2 billion."
Silii · September 8, 2020 at 9:22 am
Covid19 hasn't been with us long enough for definitive evidence and conclusions. What we do have, though, are reports from researchers and doctors about what they are observing with various treatments... There are also studies underway tracking the various mutations of the virus. This helps show where a particular strain spread, symptoms associated with the strain, etc. The various mutations, and resulting infections, could cause different symptoms and severity thereof. Yes, we are incurring costs. So?
badelectronics · September 8, 2020 at 6:30 am
@DougF: You say,"...let's stick to the science..." and you say earlier,"I strongly feel..."

So you want others to stick to the facts (As you see them of course.) but you'll go on feelings when it suits you.
DougF · September 7, 2020 at 7:55 pm
Hi Silii -- Absolutely let's stick to the science for what we know about the disease. The referenced study is science. Anecdotes are not science. As an aside, I'm sure you know that every parasitic infection has some long term consequences. What's important is frequency and severity.

Unfortunately, while we wait for science to catch up we are incurring massive first order and second order costs. Our strategic decisions should consider the costs of waiting.

A correct strategy solves for all cause mortality and human welfare. The incorrect strategy focuses solely on first order mortality and a desire to avoid all risk.
Silii · September 7, 2020 at 7:09 pm
Hi Doug, The info about lungs healing themselves is wonderful news for people whose lungs repair. There remain more questions about covid19 post-infection issues than current descriptive information is able to report. Covid19 attacks multiple body systems including vascular. Some post-covid19 patients are presenting with serious vascular disturbances, including decreased circulation in the legs and feet resulting in amputation. So, as much as it would be optimal to say people's bodies repair post covid19, it does not appear that is the case. There hasn't been time to conduct conclusive studies just as there hasn't been enough time to declare cures or successful treatments for covid19 patients. Let's stick to the science. Meanwhile, people need to continue to take steps to keep themselves and others safe from contracting covid19.
DougF · September 7, 2020 at 6:04 pm
Frida, I am interested in the science. Every similar epidemic in history ended with a sufficient number of people developing immunity that outbreaks were seasonal and controllable. This will end similarly. The only question is how to minimize total costs on the way there.

I strongly feel that when the first order costs (deaths from CoViD-19) and second order costs (suicides, deaths from delayed medical care, deaths from increased drug abuse, increased child abuse, increased divorces, nursing home resident deaths of despair, and many other undesirable outcomes) are considered, Virginia's strategy is not optimal.

As an addendum, rapid home testing suffers from the same false positive problem as other tests. The more people who are not sick get tested, the more false positives approach 100%. When families who are not sick test themselves with an at-home test, any positive will be a false positive. Any action taken because of a false positive, such as isolation, will be needless and potentially harmful.

Ironically, CoViD-19 is the only disease in history where diagnosis is based solely on a test. All other diseases, including diseases where PCR was used, required a physician to assess the patient and symptoms before declaring an infection. The test only assisted the physician in the evaluation of the patient. SARS, MERS, and Ebola required two PCR tests and a physician evaluating symptoms.

You mentioned long term damage. This study will interest you: "Lungs damaged by coronavirus can repair themselves in 3 months" Link: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/09/06/lungs-damaged-coronavirus-can-repair-three-months/

Frida · September 7, 2020 at 5:09 pm
Sweden has the highest rate of deaths in all the Nordic countries. They also have universal health care/insurance as most if not all of Europe does as well as a good social safety net. While it doesnt solve everything it certainly helps. If u believe in science at all they are concerned with the herd immunity idea they dont know enough about the virus at this point to be able to say for sure whether it would even work. There are a few cases of reinfection due to mutations they just cant say it would work. For sure slowing it down is agreed on by scientists that includes masks social distancing and possibly rapid home testing they are working on it. Slowing it down allows time to come up with treatments and vaccine with ideally less suffering and death. Actually Virginia would do much better if people took the science seriously and were able to resist going to crowded beaches for the holdiays traveling without good reason etc. etc. Colleges also a huge issue they do not know the long term damage from this virus yet even for younger people. It is sad.
DougF · September 7, 2020 at 3:44 pm
Unfortunately, since Virginia's strategy is to suppress the virus until a vaccine becomes available, deaths will continue for months.

If a vaccine is available 1/1/21, and 180,000 people get vaccinated a day after that, Virginia will reach herd immunity (65% of the population vaccinated, midway between 60-70%) by the end of January. If cases stop at that time and deaths lag by a month, we have 25 weeks of deaths to go. Of course, if the vaccine is available later and if vaccinations take longer, the deaths will go on longer.

25 more weeks of deaths at the current weekly rate mean we will have CoViD-19 deaths per million about equal to Sweden. Yet Sweden never closed elementary schools, never mandated masks, never closed businesses. They have just passed a week with nearly zero CoViD-19 deaths.

The direct deaths above do not include increased deaths due to the strategy and social costs. Increased suicides, deaths from delayed medical care, deaths from increased drug abuse, increased child abuse, increased divorces, nursding home resident with no social interaction, and many other undesirable outcomes are all related to the strategy Virginia chose.

I'm saddened by Virginia's strategy and its outcomes.
Becca · September 7, 2020 at 3:18 pm
Those poor people. I've many family members in nursing homes & they've all been miserable for months, unable to go anywhere or see anyone, with no end to this nightmare in sight. Our national response to this pandemic is an absolute disgrace, & it's our most vulnerable who pay the price.
DougF · September 7, 2020 at 12:23 pm
After reading this series of stories day after day for months I find my risk perception warps toward risk being higher than it actually is. Perhaps the same dynamic exists for other readers. To recover, read the article I link below. It reports on research done at Stanford and UCLA that sets the risk of contracting CoViD-19, hospitalization, and death. The results are revealing:

"Among US counties with populations greater than 500,000 people, during the week ending June 13,2020, the median estimate of the county level probability of a confirmed infection is 1 infection in 40,500 person contacts (Range: 10,100 to 586,000). For a 50 to 64 year-old individual, the median estimate of the county level probability of a hospitalization is 1 in 709,000 person contacts (Range: 177,000 to 10,200,000) and the median estimate of the county level probability of a fatality is 1 in 6,670,000 person contacts (Range 1,680,000 to 97,600.000)."

Link: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.06.20124446v2

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