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October 14, 2020

4,500 “excess deaths” took place in Va. amid pandemic

The study bolsters concerns that the pandemic has caused a wave of secondary deaths because of ongoing disruptions in everyday life, according to its author.
We’re seeing the U.S. mortality rate for Alzheimer’s disease increased significantly during these five months. Suddenly the national death rate for heart disease increased significantly. So, this is a real thing.
— Dr. Steven Woolf of VCU’s Center on Society and Health
By Kate Masters
Virginia Mercury

New research from Virginia Commonwealth University shows that an additional 4,500 Virginians died between March and August over would be expected based on historical data — a measure known as excess deaths.

That’s an increase of 16 percent, according to Steven Woolf, the lead author on the paper and director emeritus of VCU’s Center on Society and Health. But only 52 percent of those excess deaths in Virginia during the COVID-19 pandemic were attributed to the virus itself as either the underlying cause or a contributing factor.

While it’s possible that coronavirus wasn’t accurately identified as a contributor in some of those deaths, Dr. Woolf said the most recent analysis — which builds on an earlier paper looking at excess deaths across the country in March and April — bolsters concerns that the pandemic is also causing a wave of secondary deaths due to ongoing disruptions in everyday life.

“We’re seeing the U.S. mortality rate for Alzheimer’s disease increased significantly during these five months,” he added. “Suddenly the national death rate for heart disease increased significantly. So, this is a real thing.”

Since early in the pandemic, experts in Virginia have been concerned that COVID-19 safety restrictions — including a stay-at-home order in late March and month-long ban on elective procedures — may be worsening chronic conditions or otherwise affecting public health. By late April, pediatricians were troubled by a precipitous drop in the state’s child vaccination rates. The Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association reported that emergency room use declined by 52 percent within the first three weeks after Virginia reported its first confirmed case.

Both ER and inpatient hospital discharges have rebounded slightly since the ban on elective procedures was rescinded in May, but are still far from the levels seen in previous years, according to a VHHA webinar last week. The state has also seen an increase in opioid overdoses during the same period — including a 123 percent increase in nonfatal overdose hospital visits at VCU.

“It’s likely that people who aren’t infected with the virus are being impacted in terms of physical and behavioral health issues,” Dr. Woolf said. “Various hospitals and clinicians are reporting delays in patients coming in for chronic illnesses. People were slow to respond to acute emergencies because they were scared of the virus. And conversely, there were increased admissions for drug overdoses.”

The study found that excess deaths increased by a total of 20 percent nationwide since March, with the highest per-capita rates in 10 states including New York, New Jersey and Arizona — some of the areas hit hardest by the virus. Deaths from non-COVID causes, such as heart disease, diabetes and Alzheimer’s, also spiked sharply in five states with the greatest numbers of coronavirus deaths.

But the updated report also analyzed the effect of reopening policies on excess death rates. New York, New Jersey and Massachusetts, three states with the highest total mortality rates, accounted for 30 percent of all excess deaths in the five-month study period. But Dr. Woolf said those states, which were hit early and hard by the virus, quickly implemented tight restrictions and kept them in place for months. That shortened the length of their epidemics compared to Sun Belt states that lifted restrictions early and experienced a surge in deaths over the summer.

“I’m referring to states like Florida, Texas, Arizona — their epidemic curve is totally different,” he added. “With these states, 90 percent of the deaths occurred over 16 or 17 weeks. So, this longer stretch of time means not only more excess deaths, but the extended disruption of the economy in those states. And the irony is that the economy was one of the main motivators for those governors.”

Dr. Woolf said Virginia’s method of lifting restrictions more gradually has been fairly successful at limiting the state’s number of both COVID-19 and excess deaths. But he cautioned that leaders across the country should be “staying the course” when it comes to restrictions over the fall and winter, when the risk of another surge is even greater.

One important consideration is that deaths from the coronavirus and from chronic conditions disproportionately affect people of color. “When we talk about excess deaths, it’s African American and Hispanic communities who are bearing the brunt of this,” Dr. Woolf added.

He also highlighted that countries who have been most successful at managing the virus implemented extended safety restrictions as they developed a strong testing and contact tracing infrastructure. The same measures haven’t always been taken in the United States, where a fragmented approach has largely defined the response to the pandemic.

“It’s very important that our elected officials take a strong position on the need to continue these lifestyle changes,” Dr. Woolf said. “Otherwise, I think we’re going to see a very large loss of life and the economy is going to be further devastated.”

Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam, recovered from his own bout with COVID-19, announced at Tuesday news conference that he currently had no intention of loosening the state’s current Phase Three restrictions until metrics improved even further.
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Mark House · October 18, 2020 at 2:28 pm
DougF - New report that Sturgis 2020 may be super spreader. How ya feeling these days Doug since you said you attended?
Linda Ward · October 15, 2020 at 12:41 pm
"But what about holiday gatherings? Are they safe, even if everyone is masked and six feet apart?

“That’s easier said than done in family gatherings. It becomes more difficult when people want to see family members they haven’t seen in a while,” says Sandro Galea, the dean at Boston University’s School of Public Health. “My general advice is that people get tested before seeing more elderly family members, but that they also use other precautions,” including wearing masks, distancing and frequently washing hands."
badelectronics · October 15, 2020 at 10:41 am
@AngryBob:

"The cure is worse than the disease. It needs to stop."

Republican. The party of death.
AngryBob · October 15, 2020 at 9:10 am
Silii: No one is going to force you to leave the basement you're hiding in.
badelectronics · October 15, 2020 at 7:22 am
@DougF: The President said he is immune from covid. a. Is he telling the truth? b. How can he possibly know?

Come on Doug, let's see you answer honestly.
Silii · October 14, 2020 at 5:45 pm
So moving on, Trump and his administration have endorsed 'herd immunity' or as Trump says, 'herd mentality.' lol. There is no data to show the immunity response. There are mutations to the virus which is the reason there is mapping of covid19 outbreaks. So, there is nothing to show any type or length or type of immunity. But Trump is doubling down on the herd immunity theory. That means millions of Americans would have to die. To you folks who believe Trump on this one, please list your loved ones, family members, your friends, your co-workers, yourself you would like to see die while 'herd immunity' is established because you won't be spared sacrificing someone close or meaningful to you. Would Trump sacrifice Melania? His son Barron (who has tested positive)? His precious Ivanka whom he would date were she not his daughter? Or Stormy Daniels? Or any one of the women whose pussies he grabbed because he could? And, no, this country won't begin to heal until Trump is gone and in prison where he belongs.
Becca · October 14, 2020 at 4:23 pm
That's a good quote, Doug. Really encapsulates how Trump has come this far
DougF · October 14, 2020 at 2:12 pm
Silii -- your post reminds me of a quote, “If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it"
Silii · October 14, 2020 at 1:54 pm
We won't begin to heal until Trump is gone. He totally mismanaged, and continues to mismanage, the pandemic in our country. He spews divisiveness and hatred and bigotry. He lies and lies. He's a scam man, a con, a grifter. He is only into himself and making money at taxpayers expense and keeping his sorry self out of jail. It's time for a big change in the White House and Senate come election day.
AngryBob · October 14, 2020 at 1:16 pm
Poverty. Isolation. Depression. Suicides. Domestic abuse. Child abuse. Divorce. Substance abuse. Ruined lives. All because of the Chinavirus and the Democrat Lockdown.

The cure is worse than the disease. It needs to stop.
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