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September 16, 2020

845 new COVID-19 cases, 45 more deaths in Virginia

The Virginia Department of Health has reported 141 COVID-19 deaths in the last two days, but officials say many of those fatalities occurred weeks or even months ago. It takes a while to certify the cause of death in many cases.
Curbside Testing
• Where: Piedmont Urgent Care, 493 Blackwell Road, Warrenton

• When: 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. daily

• Process: Patients can remain in their vehicles while healthcare professionals collect samples with swabs.

• Organizers: Rappahannock-Rapidan Health District and local partners, including medical practices, Fauquier Health, the free clinic, PATH Foundation and local government.

• Phone: 540-347-5200

• COVID questions: 540-316-6302 or .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address)
Wednesday morning COVID-19 update from the Virginia Department of Health :

877 total cases in Fauquier County since the pandemic began — up 11 from Tuesday.

136,359 Virginia cases — up 845 since Tuesday. The total includes 129,963 confirmed and 6,396 “probable” infections.

2,884 deaths statewide — up 45 from Tuesday. Of the total fatalities, the health department classifies COVID-19 as the confirmed cause in 2,711 and “probable” in 173.

1,799,851 diagnostic tests statewide — up 14,298 since Tuesday. Over the past seven days, 6.9 percent of those tests were positive.

Statewide hospitalizations for COVID-19 over the course of the pandemic totaled 10,389 as of Wednesday, up 52 since Tuesday.

But, the health department notes that its hospitalization figure — based on status at the time each case gets investigated — “underrepresents” the actual total.

Since the pandemic began, 16,536 “confirmed COVID-19 patients have been hospitalized and discharged,” according to the Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association.

State hospitals housed 1,027 infected patients Wednesday — up 12 from Tuesday, according to the association.

That puts total Virginia hospitalizations during the pandemic at 17,563.

Virginia hospitalizations for COVID-19 peaked at 1,625 patients on May 8.

Healthcare providers and laboratories report statistics to the state as of 5 p.m. each day. The health department updates its report the following morning.

Forty-six infected Fauquier patients have been hospitalized and 21 have died since the pandemic started.

In the Rappahannock-Rapidan Health District, which includes Fauquier:

• 1,167 cases (unchanged), 91 hospitalizations and 16 deaths in Culpeper.

• 295 infections (up 6), 20 hospitalizations and 4 deaths in Orange.

• 99 infections (unchanged), 6 hospitalizations and 3 deaths in Madison.

• 63 cases (up 1), 5 hospitalizations and 2 deaths in Rappahannock.

The district has 46 COVID-19 deaths, and 168 infected patients have been hospitalized during the pandemic.

The health department reported 31,590 diagnostic tests in the district so far, up 166 from Tuesday. Over the last seven days, 6.3 percent of tests conducted in the five-county district were positive.


Cases elsewhere in Virginia:

• 19,837 in Fairfax County — up 105 since Tuesday.

Prince William County, 11,810 — up 45.

Virginia Beach, 6,515 — down 8.

Loudoun County, 6,523 — up 34.

Chesterfield County, 5,628 — up 35.

Henrico County, 5,120 — up 41.

City of Norfolk, 4,685 — up 9.

City of Richmond, 4,384 — up 21.

City of Chesapeake, 4,119 — up 23.

Arlington County, 3,779 — up 20.

City of Alexandria, 3,628 — up 13.

City of Newport News, 3,620 — up 29.

City of Portsmouth, 2,427 — up 3.

City of Harrisonburg, 2,293 — up 24.

Spotsylvania County, 2,041 — up 12.
City of Manassas, 1,869 — unchanged.

Stafford County, 1,880 — up 8.

City of Suffolk, 1,859 — up 1.

City of Hampton, 1,736 — up 6.

Montgomery County, 1,554 — up 39.

City of Roanoke, 1,413 — up 19.

Rockingham County, 1,312 — up 18.

City of Lynchburg, 1,221 — up 14.

• Hanover County, 1,190 — up 3.

Accomack County, 1,161 — unchanged.

Albemarle County, 1,145 — up 5.


Nationwide as of Wednesday:

6,606,859 cases — up 51,475.

• 195,691 deaths — up 1,414.

• 2,495,127 have recovered — up 20,577.

• 89.98 million tests conducted — up about 380,000.

Member comments
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pukaka · September 16, 2020 at 11:56 pm
This is a great thing, I think everyone feels this information is very valuable, thank you happy wheels
DougF · September 16, 2020 at 8:54 pm
badelectronics, after I pushed the comment button I thought of one more indicator of spread, although that indicator is for the Roanoke-Rapidan Health District instead of just Fauquier County. Take a look at ED visits for COVID-like illness. It's not perfect, but it is an indicator of possible infection severe enough for an ER visit.

https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-data-insights/

CLI is also reported on a national basis in CDC's weekly COVIDView report.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html
DougF · September 16, 2020 at 8:40 pm
badelectronics, do cases have any meaning? First, they are very loosely defined (https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/when-is-covid-covid/). They are almost all based entirely on a rPCR test that doesn't test for infections and doesn't tell us anything about whether the test subject may currently be infected (unless cycle count is provided). rPCR positive counts are completely a creature of testing volume and populations tested. Importantly, rPCR is not predictive of future hospitalizations or deaths.

At least trends in hospitalizations and deaths are meaningful, despite rPCR's failures.

Recall that hospitalizations and deaths in Fauquier recently jumped due to infections in a congregate care setting where the most vulnerable reside.

I don't have any information on Rt for Fauquier, do you?

As for the cnn link, anecdotes are not statistics. They also are not science. I refuse to get into an anecdote war. They are pointless.
badelectronics · September 16, 2020 at 8:05 pm
badelectronics · September 16, 2020 at 7:18 pm
badelectronics · September 16, 2020 at 7:07 pm
DougF, Tell me, tracking the cases here in Fauquier, do you think it is trending upward or downward?
DougF · September 16, 2020 at 6:41 pm
Cases, hospitalizations, and deaths by date of report have all been trending down rapidly across the US in the past six weeks (https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-all-key-metrics). Moreover, Rt is forecast to be below 1 through October (https://covid19-projections.com/).

At some point cases nationwide might be like cases in many metro areas; the positivity rate is within the band of false positive rates (Cohen-Kessel; Virginia has not disclosed whether and how VDH tracks and corrects for false positives).

Mark House · September 16, 2020 at 4:32 pm
"However, public skepticism remains. Of the Americans who said in the May AP poll that they wouldn't get vaccinated, the overwhelming majority said they were worried about safety. To effectively protect the nation from the coronavirus, experts say 70% to 90% of Americans must either be vaccinated or have their own immunity from fighting off COVID-19.

Before the Republican National Convention in August, the FDA granted authorization for treatment of COVID-19 patients with plasma from people who have recovered, even though some government scientists were not convinced the clinical evidence was sufficiently strong.

As public confidence in health agencies has taken a beating, Trump administration officials have been forced to play defense.

“We are working closely with our state and local public health partners ... to ensure that Americans can receive the vaccine as soon as possible and vaccinate with confidence,” HHS Secretary Alex Azar said in a statement Wednesday. “Americans should know that the vaccine development process is being driven completely by science and the data.”

That could be a tough sell. In the AP poll, 1 in 5 Americans said they would not get a coronavirus vaccine, and 31% said they were unsure.

“We’re dealing in a world of great uncertainty,” said Paul Mango, a top HHS official working on the vaccine plan."

Who would have thought that there would be great uncertainty with Trump in charge?
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