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February 15, 2021

Its COVID numbers down, Va. may have passed “peak”

The number of Fauquier residents completing the two-shot COVID-19 vaccine regimen rose to 2,305 as of Monday morning.
Getting The Vaccine
Under “Phase 1b,” all Virginians 65 and older may register — along with those 16 to 64 with certain medical conditions.

Visit the Virginia Department of Health website

On the website, complete the appropriate survey to sign up for the vaccine.

The health department also has a hotline: 877-275-8343.

Fauquier County has a call center to help at 540-422-0111.

The number of people who want the vaccine far outnumbers the supply. It will require patience.

Fauquier Health vaccination information.
The rates of new coronavirus cases, deaths and hospitalizations in Virginia continue to decline, while vaccinations increase.

“Cases are declining statewide, with 33 of 35 health districts . . . in a declining trajectory,” the University of Virginia reported Friday. “Nonetheless, rates remain very high. Current case rates mimic those we saw in December 2020.

“The majority of model projection scenarios predict we are past the peak. Only the ‘Adaptive, Fatigue Control with Variant’ scenario predicts another peak later this year.”

Monday morning COVID-19 update from the Virginia Department of Health:

3,790 total cases in Fauquier since the pandemic began — up 18 from Sunday morning’s report.

Fauquier public schools have 12 active cases among staff members and 15 among students as of Monday morning. The school system had 20 employees and 160 students in quarantine as of Friday, Feb. 12.

551,538 Virginia cases — up 1,539 since Sunday.

The total includes 437,262 confirmed and 114,276 “probable” infections.

7,016 deaths statewide — up 4 from Sunday.

Of the total fatalities, the health department classifies COVID-19 as the confirmed cause in 6,028 and “probable” in 988.

5,622,345 PCR diagnostic tests statewide — up 14,695 since Sunday. Over the past seven days, 9.3 percent of those tests were positive, trending downward.

Statewide hospitalizations for COVID-19 over the course of the pandemic totaled 22,944 as of Monday, up 38 since Sunday.

But, the health department notes that its hospitalization figure — based on status at the time each case gets investigated — “underrepresents” the actual total.

Since the pandemic began, 43,135 “confirmed COVID-19 patients have been hospitalized and discharged,” according to the Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association.

State hospitals housed 1,833 infected patients Monday — down 73, according to the association.

That puts total Virginia hospitalizations during the pandemic at 44,968.

Hospitalizations peaked at 3,549 patients Wednesday, Jan. 13, according to the association.

• 1,367,319 doses of vaccine administered statewide, including 9,705 in Fauquier — up 450 as of Monday morning.

The state has averaged 35,427 doses administered per day over the last week.

• 337,968 Virginians fully vaccinated, including 2,305 in Fauquier — raising the county total by 219 in a day.

Healthcare providers and laboratories report statistics to the state as of 5 p.m. each day. The health department updates its report the following morning.

One hundred and forty-six infected Fauquier patients have been hospitalized and 37 have died since the pandemic started.

In the Rappahannock-Rapidan Health District, which includes Fauquier:

• 3,973 cases (up 10), 159 hospitalizations and 38 deaths in Culpeper.

• 1,760 infections (up 10), 68 hospitalizations (up 1) and 19 deaths in Orange.

• 525 infections (up 2), 21 hospitalizations and 7 deaths in Madison.

• 288 cases (unchanged), 15 hospitalizations and 2 deaths in Rappahannock.

The district has 103 COVID-19 deaths, and 409 infected patients have been hospitalized during the pandemic.

The health department reported 95,472 PCR tests in the district so far — up 232. Over the last seven days, 8.2 percent of tests conducted in the five-county district were positive, trending downward.

Cases elsewhere in Virginia:

• 63,965 in Fairfax County — up 165 since Sunday.

Prince William County, 37,969 — up 83.

Virginia Beach, 29,081 — up 106.

Chesterfield County, 22,412 — up 142.

Loudoun County, 22,246 — up 60.

Henrico County, 20,392 — up 77.

City of Chesapeake, 17,217 — up 13.

City of Norfolk, 14,130 — up 49.

City of Richmond, 14,057 — up 34.

Arlington County, 12,611 — up 22.

City of Newport News, 10,801 — up 57.

City of Alexandria, 10,006 — up 21.

Stafford County, 9,159 — up 19.

City of Hampton, 8,159 — up 29.

Spotsylvania County, 7,935 — up 5.

City of Roanoke, 7,396 — up 14.

Nationwide as of Sunday morning:

27,641,389 cases — up 65,049 from Sunday morning.

• 485,338 deaths — up 1,086.

• 331.45 million tests conducted – up 1.39 million.

Curbside Testing

• Where: Piedmont Urgent Care, 493 Blackwell Road, Warrenton

• When: 8 a.m. to 4 p.m. daily

• Process: Patients can remain in their vehicles while healthcare professionals collect samples with swabs.

• Organizers: Rappahannock-Rapidan Health District and local partners, including medical practices, Fauquier Health, the free clinic, PATH Foundation and local government.

• Phone: 540-347-5200

• COVID questions: 540-316-6302 or .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address)

Member comments
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DougF · February 15, 2021 at 4:36 pm
DougF · February 15, 2021 at 4:35 pm
The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDPC) released a report today entitled "Using Face Masks in the Community First Update" (link below).

They address non-medical face masks in the community (e.g. cloth face coverings) with this summary:

"Evidence regarding the effectiveness of non-medical face masks for the prevention of COVID-19 is scarce. We did not identify any interventional or observational study directly comparing the effectiveness of non- medical face masks with that of medical face masks and no masks.

As non-medical masks can consist of different types of material and be constructed in different ways, the filtration effectiveness varies between types of non-medical face mask.

Experimental studies on non-medical face masks conducted in the laboratory show inconsistent results with large variability in their effectiveness.
Limited indirect evidence from experimental studies showed that non-medical face masks may decrease the release to the environment of respiratory droplets, although there was conflicting evidence about the relative efficiency of medical versus non-medical face masks."

EPDPC rates the effect estimate as low to moderate, but with a very low certainty of evidence.

EPDPC also addresses face shields:

"There is a lack of scientific evidence on the effectiveness of face shields/visors and transparent face masks for the prevention of COVID-19.
One simulation study showed that face shields can reduce the short-term exposure to large respiratory droplets, although this was less effective for smaller droplets."

The effect estimate is "Cannot be assessed", and Certainty of Evidence is "Very low"
DougF · February 15, 2021 at 4:01 pm
Apparently the UVA researchers relied entirely on serologic immunity, and did not look at the memory B cells, CD4+ T cells, and CD8+ T cells. Thus, their conclusion cannot relate to the entire immune system, and cannot be valid for immunity overall.

A more complete picture of immunity is in Science Magazine (link below). The conclusion is:

"Substantial immune memory is generated after COVID-19, involving all four major types of immune memory. About 95% of subjects retained immune memory at ~6 months after infection. Circulating antibody titers were not predictive of T cell memory. Thus, simple serological tests for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies do not reflect the richness and durability of immune memory to SARS-CoV-2."

Cammie Rodgers · February 15, 2021 at 10:57 am
Roanoke-Lynchburg WDBJ-TV - Hope dims for herd immunity in Virginia after COVID antibody testing results

CHARLOTTESVILLE, Va. (WDBJ/UVA Release) - Statewide blood testing for COVID-19 has found only 2% of Virginians had antibodies to the virus as of mid-August 2020. That has prompted UVA researchers to conclude herd immunity in Virginia is “currently not a plausible means of ending the COVID-19 pandemic.”
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